Pashinian's Surprising Landslide Victory Defies Armenian Opinion Polls

According to RFE/RL, Acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s party has defied opinion polls ahead of Armenia's June 20 snap elections in a landslide victory that gives it a parliamentary majority.

Pashinian’s Civil Contract party won about 54 percent of the vote compared to about 21 percent for the opposition Armenia Alliance of former President Robert Kocharian.

None of the other 20 parties and three alliances in the elections cleared the minimum threshold needed to win parliamentary seats: 5 percent for parties or 7 percent for alliances.

Since Armenia’s constitution requires at least three parties or alliances in the unicameral parliament, the Republican Party of former President Serzh Sarkisian also will take seats as the third-place finisher with just under 5 percent of the vote.

Armenia’s early elections were called by Pashinian in an attempt to resolve a political crisis that has afflicted Yerevan since Armenian forces lost a six-week war against Azerbaijan last fall.

Pashinian noted in a June 21 Facebook post that his Civil Contract party “will have a constitutional majority” and will be able to form a government on its own.

Nevertheless, he told supporters early on June 21 that his party will start political consultations in the next few days with “all healthy parties and groups that took part in the elections in order to understand their visions on our political life and possible future consolidation of public forces.”

Kocharian’s alliance said it would not recognize the results until alleged voting irregularities were addressed. But international observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said the vote had been "competitive and generally well-managed."

Political analysts say the election will not result in a reorientation of Yerevan’s foreign policy away from Russia as Armenia has become increasingly dependent on Moscow for security since the November 2020 cease-fire that ended the war with Azerbaijan.

All three forces entering the new parliament have called for closer relations with Russia in the hope of providing security guarantees and sustaining the status quo for the remaining ethnic-Armenian-populated areas of Nagorno-Karabakh