Black Sea – a Real Geopolitical Swan Lake? Black and white swans at the horizon line International Round Table
Black Sea House Association will hold the 2018 International Round Table Black Sea – a Real Geopolitical Swan Lake? Black and white swans at the horizon line International Round Table, which be held in Constanta (Romania) on Saturday, November 17, 2018.
The main objective of the event is to encourage the academic, scientific and administrative environments of the countries from the wider Black Sea region to extend and to consolidate the experts debate and maybe to create new platforms for geopolitical dialogue and analysis at the Black Sea coast, according to our permanent and prioritized concern to create a wider debate among experts from the Black Sea region and to focus our common effort to solve the common problems of the region.
The experts invited to the event come from three countries of the wider Black Sea area (Romania, Turkey, Ukraine).
The 2018 International Round Table on the topic “Black Sea – a Real Geopolitical Swan Lake? Black and white swans at the horizon line” will be held on November 17, 2018, in Constanta (Romania).
This Round Table will comprise a dialogue between the experts from three countries of the wider Black Sea area (Romania, Turkey, Ukraine).
The prestigious Tchaikovsky's masterpiece Swan Lake (Russian: Лебединое озеро), which raises the fascinating drama of the transformation of Princess Odette, has accompanied and explained paradigmically, in the last centuries, the politics at the wider Black Sea space. These can be expressed by the dancing of the Swans in Tchaikovsky. The fight between good and evil is highlighted by the fascinating and contradictory game between black and white swans.
The geopolitical theory of black swans, as developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, places the black swan in its center as a rare and unpredictable geopolitical event, a surprise with a major impact.
According to this theory, in the last four years, the Black Sea seems to have become a preferred area of black swans (a space where have place unexpected magnitude events occur with significant regional and global effects and consequences).
Round Table objectives
Detailed analytical reflections on the context of black swan production in the wider Black Sea region, as well as analytical forecasts on future geopolitical scenarios in the Black Sea are needed.
Experts in the Black Sea geopolitics of Romania, Turkey, Ukraine will try to anticipate, at Tomis, the new black swans appearing at sea (coming from the sea).
Main themes of reflection
Has the Black Sea turned into a lake of black swans? Is the Black Sea, after the annexation of Crimea, in a geopolitical red code alert?
What can be the new black swans in the wider Black Sea region? Who exports them to the Euxinus Pontus?
What can be the white swans and how can they create a peaceful geopolitical future in the region?
How will the Black Sea region look like a scene of the dance of (black and wtihe) geopolitical swans?
What scenarios of geopolitical evolution in the Black Sea region can be anticipated / intuited / detected at the horizon line?
The event is organised by Black Sea House Asociation (Constanta, Romania).
Working languages: English and Romanian (translation).
Moderator: Valentin Naumescu, associate professor, Faculty of European Studies, Babeş-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca.
- 09.30-10.00 Registration of Participants
- 10.00-14.00: Debates / Discussions
10.00-10.10: Opening Speeches - Vergil Chiţac, Senator, President of Romania's parliamentary delegation to NATO Parliamentary Assembly; Dorin Popescu, president, Black Sea House Association
10.10-14.00: Plenary sessions. Moderator: Valentin Naumescu, associate professor, Faculty of European Studies, Babeş-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca
- 10.10-11.40: 1st Session (plenary): Black Sea - Current geopolitical profile: a black swan lake?
- Marian Cojoc, professor, Ovidius University of Constanța, Romania, „Geopolitical Reflections / Hegemonic Trends at Danube and the Black Sea (1939-1949)”
- Cătălin Buciumeanu, President, Center for Advanced Strategies, Bucharest, Romania, „Black Sea and the impossible escape from geography”
- Muzzafer Șenel, Director, Center for Modern Turkish Studies, Assistant Professor at Department of Political Science & International Relations, İstanbul Şehir University, Turkey, „Black Sea Region in Turkey’s Foreign and Security Policy”
- Marian Zidaru, associate professor, Constanța, Romania, „Syrian War – a place of testing new russian weapons”
- Sergey Hakman, Deputy Director of the Regional Center for Training and Development of Public Officers, Chernivtsi, Ukraine, „Geopolitical Challenges at the Beginning of the Third Millennium: Crimean Precedence”
- Alexandru-Marian Crenganiș, Ovidius University of Constanța, Romania, „Extension of the European Union construction to the wider Black Sea region”
- 11.40-12.00: Coffee Break
- 12.00-13.40: 2nd Session (plenary): White and black swans on the tangible horizon of the Black Sea
- Vergil Chițac, Senator, President of Romania's parliamentary delegation to NATO Parliamentary Assembly, Bucharest, Romania, title reserved
- Marin Gherman, Policy Analyst, Editor in Chief, Media Center BucPress, Chernivtsi, Ukraine, „Black Sea - a lake of informational warfare: between hybrid attack techniques and intuitive defense attempts”
- Marioara Cojoc, associate professor, Ovidius University of Constanța, Romania, „Evolution of the wider Black Sea space concept”
- Sergiy Gerasymchuk, Deputy Chairman of the Board, Head of the South-Eastern Europe Studies, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”, Kiev, Ukraine, "Russian hybrid warfare in Ukraine and its impact on Wider Black Sea region's security"
- Gabriel Moise, commander, Romanian Naval Forces, Constanta, Romania, „Can naval diplomacy keep away the black swans at the Black Sea?”
- Dorin Popescu, president, Black Sea House Association, Constanta, Romania, „Five hybrid scenarios at the Black Sea”
- 13.40-14.00: Conclusion and Recommendations
 This combination of low predictability and large impact makes the Black Swan a great puzzle. What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives. Ever since we left the Pleistocene, some ten millennia ago, the effect of these Black Swans has been increasing.
 The term Euxinus Pontus is the historical name commonly used to describe the Black Sea.