International round table "Hannibal intra muros. Solutions & strategies to strengthen resilience in the wider Black Sea region"

Organizer(s): Black Sea House Association, Constanta, Romania, in partnership with the Initiative for European Democratic Culture / ICDE, Romania, ICDE – Bucharest and Constanta branch and the Institute for World Politics, Kyiv, Ukraine.

Participants: Experts from Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine.

Working languages: English and Russian.

The concept of the event:

Hannibal ante portas is the favourite expression of the imminence of an external attack in classical geopolitical approaches. In the contemporary world, the main hybrid threats to the security of state and non-state actors, have entered the Citadel and rely on the exploitation of internal vulnerabilities. But Hannibal arrived already inside / intra muros, where he is already acting, in insidious ways and with hardly recognizable physiognomies.

Strengthening resilience to threats to the exploitation of internal vulnerabilities has become a key component of current geopolitics.

It is obvious, for all state actors, the fact that the wider Black Sea region has become, in recent years, an increasingly unpredictable and tensioned geopolitical space. In this context, there is a need to carry out an updated inventory of internal vulnerabilities and threats in the region. We must focus on the narratives that express and support these threats and seek appropriate solutions to respond by strengthening our resilience. This particular situation represents, undoubtedly, a productive and exciting topic of debate.

Sub-themes and sub-areas of interest:

What are the internal vulnerabilities of state actors in the wider Black Sea region?

What are the risks and threats that rely on their own vulnerabilities?

What are the narratives that express and support these threats?

What are the solutions and scenarios to combat these threats/narratives and strengthen resilience, at the level of state actors in the wider Black Sea region?

What geopolitical black swans can be expected to disturb the relative peace of the region again? What is the most dangerous scenario for the deterioration of the security situation in the region?

The round table will have two sections; the first (Vulnerabilities, narratives, risks and threats in the Black Sea region - a current analytical picture, in English) will identify the main vulnerabilities in the wider Black Sea region, and the second (Resilience building solutions and strategies, in Russian) – the solutions to build resilience.

PROGRAMME

Thursday, December 9^th, 10.00 a.m. - 2.00 p.m. (Bucharest time)

10.00 - 10.10: Opening of the Round Table

10.10-12.00: Section I, Vulnerabilities, narratives, risks and threats in the wider Black Sea region - a current analytical picture (English)

Moderator: Valentin Naumescu, Professor of International Relations, Faculty of European Studies, Babeş-Bolyai University Cluj-Napoca, President of the Initiative for European Democratic Culture, Romania

1. Radu Carp, president of the European Democratic Culture Initiative Association – Bucharest branch, professor, Political Sciences Faculty, University of Bucharest, Romania, Will Russia invade Ukraine? Implications for the security environment in the Black Sea region
2. Volodymyr Dubovyk, Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, School of international relations, political science and sociology, I.I. Mechnikov National University, Odesa, Ukraine, Ukraine at the spearhead of the Black Sea security conundrum
3. Răzvan Victor Pantelimon, lecturer at the Faculty of History and Political Science,  Ovidius University of Constanta, Black Sea House Association, Constanța, Romania, Illiberal Regimes and the Use of Fakenews
4. Tengiz Pkhaladze, Associate Professor, Head of BA Program in Political Science, Georgian Institute of Public Affairs / GIPA, European Centre for International Political Economy/ ECIPE, Tbilisi, Georgia, Georgia’s role in the Black Sea security
5. Marian Zidaru, Associate Professor, Black Sea House Association, Constanța, Romania, The Russian doctrine of de-escalation by escalation and the role of non-strategic nuclear weapons
6. Muzaffer Şenel, PhD, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Ankara Medipol University, Turkey, Turkey in the New Black Sea Chessboard: Quo Vadis?
7. Ludmila Nofit, Executive Director, Foreign Policy Association, Republic of Moldova, Vulnerabilities and opportunities in combating hybrid threats in the Republic of Moldova  
8. Marius-George Cojocaru, lecturer at the Faculty of History and Political Science,  Ovidius University of Constanta, Black Sea House Association, Constanța, Romania, The Red Line in the Black Sea  
9. Dragoș C. Mateescu, PhD, Foreign Affairs Advisor, Romanian Diplomatic Institute (RDI), The New Turkey at the Black Sea: Potential for Instability?

Time for discussions

12.00-13.50: Section II, Resilience building solutions and strategies (Russian)

Moderator: Yevhen Mahda, director of Institute of World Policy, Kyiv, Ukraine

1. Marin Gherman, PhD, director of the Institute of Political Studies and Social Capital, Editor-in-Chief of BucPress Media Center, Political Analyst, Chernivtsi, Ucraina, Narratives of the hybrid war in the Black Sea region / Нарративы гибридной войны в Черноморском регионе  
2. Natalia Stercul, Program Director, Foreign Policy Association of the Republic of Moldova, Russia's revisionist policy in the Black Sea Region: dominant narratives in Russian political and media discourse / Ревизионистская политика России в Черноморском регионе: доминирующие нарративы в российском политическом и медийном дискурсе  
3. Gela Vasadze, director of Regional Programs, Georgian Strategic Analysis Center, Tbilisi, Georgia,  Mediating role of Russia in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia within a year after the end of active hostilities in Karabakh / Посредническая роль России в конфликте между Азербайджаном и Арменией через год после окончания активных боевых действий в Карабахе  
4. Yevhen Mahda, director of Institute of World Policy, Kyiv, Ucraina, Russian hybrid instruments between the Black Sea and the Baltic / Гибридные инструменты России между Черным морем и Балтикой
5. Zmicier Mickiewicz, analyst, research fellow, Belarus Security Blog Analytical Centre, Minsk, Belarus (currently in Poland), Lukashenka's hybrid aggression as a threat for stability in Eastern and Central Europe / Гибридная агрессия Лукашенко как угроза стабильности Восточной и Центральной Европы  
6. Serhii Hakman, PhD, Associate Professor, deputy director of Chernivtsi Regional Center for Retraining and Advanced Training of Employees in Public Authorities, vice-president of Charity Foundation ”Public Resource and Initiative”, Chernivtsi, Ukraine, Minimizing national and historical stereotypes as a way of dealing with potential conflicts in the border regions of South East Europe / Минимизация этнонациональных и исторических стереотипов как способ обращення с потенциальными конфликтами в приграничных регионах Юго-Восточной Европы
7. Dorin Popescu, PhD, president, Black Sea House Association, Constanta, Romania, Black Sea: soldiers and hybrid surprises in the matryoshka corset / Черное море. Солдаты и гибридные сюрпризы под корсетом Матрёшки

Time for discussions

13.50-14.00: Closing of the Round Table. Conclusions