International round table "Shadow of Ares at the Black Sea. Are black swans still possible?"

The Black Sea House Association Constanta organise the International Round Table “Shadow of Ares at the Black Sea. Are black swans still possible?” (in-person event), which will take place on Saturday, 12th of November 2022, at the Ramada Hotel, Constanta, Romania (Ovidius Room, 8th floor).

Participants: Experts from Belarus/Poland, Georgia, Moldova, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine

Working languages: English and Romanian

PROGRAMME

Saturday, November 12^th, 10.00 a.m. - 2.30 p.m. (Bucharest time)

Ovidius Room, 8^th floor

10.00 - 10.10: Opening of the Round Table (Dr Dorin Popescu, president of the Black Sea House Association; Mr Emre Yurdakul, general consul of Turkey to Constanta)

10.10-12.00: Section I, The war of aggression in Ukraine - a current analytical picture

Moderator: Prof. dr. Radu Carp, Political Sciences Faculty, University of Bucharest, president of the European Democratic Culture Initiative Association – Bucharest branch, Romania

1. Dr Răzvan Munteanu, President, Chamber of Excellence in International Affairs (CEIA), Bucharest, Romania, NATO's role in the dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, What the Alliance can do for Ukraine
2. Dr Ioana Constantin-Bercean, Scientific Researcher, "Ion I.C. Brătianu" Institute of Political Science and International Relations, Romania, The realist tradition and its limits in assessing the nuclear taboo. Avoiding the 'Senkaku Paradox' in the Black Sea Region
3. Dr Serhii Hakman, Associate Professor, Deputy Director of Chernivtsi Regional Center for Retraining and Advanced Training of Employees in Public Authorities, Vice-president of Charity Fund ”Public Resource and Initiative”, Chernivtsi, Ukraine, Russia's war against Ukraine: aspects of international law and hybrid manifestations
4. Dr Muzaffer Şenel, Associate Professor, Ankara Medipol University, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Ankara, Turkey, Turkish Foreign Policy and the Russia-Ukraine War
5. Dr Angela Grămadă, President, Experts for Security and Global Affairs Association, Bucharest, Romania, reserved title
6. Dr Răzvan Victor Pantelimon, Lecturer, Erasmus Departamental Coordinator, Faculty of History and Political Science, Ovidius University of Constanta, Black Sea House Association, Romania, The position of the BRICS States on the war of Russia against Ukraine
7. Dr Marin Gherman, Director, Institute of Political Studies and Social Capital, Chernivtsi, Ukraine, lecturer, ”Stefan cel Mare” Suceava University,  Evolutions and metamorphoses of Russian propaganda in the context of the war in Ukraine
8. Olena Tanasiychuk, president, Charity Fund ”Public Resource and Initiative”, Director of the regional development and program management, Eleos Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine, The humanitarian challenges of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the influence of civil society institutions

Time for discussions

12.00-12.30: Presentation of the photo exhibition "Simple sides of a simple local history" of the Charity Fund "Public Resources and Initiatives", Chernivtsi, Ukraine; coffee break

- Olena Tanasiychuk, President of Charity Fund ”Public Resource and Initiative”, director of the regional development and program management, Eleos Ukraine,  Kyiv, Ukraine

- Serhii Hakman, Associate Professor, deputy director of Chernivtsi Regional Center for Retraining and Advanced Training of Employees in Public Authorities, vice-president, Charity Fund ”Public Resource and Initiative”, Chernivtsi, Ukraine

- Nataliia Geiman, Project coordinator, Eleos Ukraine, Head of Eleos-Dnipro, Kyiv, Ukraine

12.30-14.20: Section II, The black swans of the war in Ukraine. The Black Sea and the world after Putin

Moderator: Dr Marin Gherman, director of the Institute of Political Studies and Social Capital, Political Analyst, Chernivtsi, Ukraine, lecturer, ”Stefan cel Mare” Suceava University

1. Dr Radu Carp, President, Initiative for European Democratic Culture / ICDE – Bucharest branch, professor, Political Sciences Faculty, University of Bucharest, Romania, What will the end of the war in Ukraine look like? Scenarios and certainties
2. Mihai Mogâldea, Deputy Director, Institute for European Policies and Reforms (IPRE), Chisinau, Republic of Moldova, Moldova - towards an upgraded position in the Black Sea region
3. Gela Vasadze, Director of Regional Programs, Georgian Strategic Analysis Center, Tbilisi, Georgia,  Russia's strategy in the South Caucasus - defeat is inevitable
4. Dr Natalia Nechaeva-Yuriychuk, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and State Governing, Chernivtsi National University, Chernivtsi, Ukraine, Terrorism as a tool of geopolitical influence; the learned lessons of the Russian-Ukrainian war
5. Dr Marian Zidaru, Associate Professor, Black Sea House Association, Constanța, Romania, Balance of forces of nuclear submarines and strategic stability
6. Mr Zmicier Mickiewicz, analyst, research fellow, Belarus Security Blog Analytical Centre, journalist, Belsat Tv, Minsk, Belarus (currently in Poland), Belarus - an occupied state. The ally and the enemy of the Kremlin at the same time
7. Dr Dorin Popescu, president, Black Sea House Association, Constanta, vice-president, Initiative for European Democratic Culture / ICDE, Romania, Winners and losers of the hybrid war. It is possible a new global order without Russia?

Time for discussions

 14.20-14.30: Closing of the Round Table. Conclusions 

 15.00: Lunch – Cherhanaua Pontica (Seafood Restaurant), 312 D Blvd Mamaia

The concept of the event

The unpredictable dynamic of the war of aggression in Ukraine requires periodic analytical debates on the evolution of this war, with the participation of prestigious experts from the countries of the extended Black Sea region (priority Romania, Ukraine, Republic of Moldova, Georgia, Turkey, Bulgaria).

As a priority, it is crucial to identify, anticipate and prevent some radical developments of the war in Ukraine, ensuring at the same time substantial analytical equipment of the decision-makers in the countries in the extended Black Sea region, to developing better foreign policies.

The debates will focus on the analysis of the current state and scenarios of the evolution of the war of aggression launched by the Russian Federation against Ukraine, against Western liberal values ​​and the current global order, as an imperialist project in the regional and hegemonic world (Panel 1), as well as predictions regarding possible new black swans regionally and globally, with an analytical substantiation of the post-Putin world, case study: Black Sea region (Panel 2).

Sub-themes and sub-areas of interest:

• What is the current stage of the war of aggression in Ukraine and what are the most likely trends of its evolution?

• Reconfiguration of state and non-state actors regionally and globally.

• Possible consequences of the war on a regional and global level.

• What will the post-Putin world look like?

• What will post-Putin Russia looks like?

• Possible solutions to end the war.

• Tools of the international community to prevent and punish radical actions and dangerous deviations of state actors from the current global order / system of international law.

• What geopolitical black swans can be anticipated in the region?